Estimating long-term effects of disease-modifying drug therapy in multiple sclerosis patients.

Two methods were used to estimate the long-term impact of disease-modifying drug therapy (DMDT) in patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) who completed a placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial of interferon beta-1a (IFNbeta-1a). The study cohort consisted of patients with ambulatory relapsing MS who had previously participated in a placebo-controlled clinical trial for two years. At its end, patients were managed in an unstructured fashion by their neurologists and re-evaluated at an average of 6.1 years after the end of the trial. Follow-up evaluation was obtained for 93% of the 172 eligible patients. Because study inclusion criteria required that all patients have an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of < or = 3.5 at entry, disability progression at follow-up was defined as EDSS > or = 6.0. Two methods were used to estimate the expected proportions that reached EDSS > or = 6.0 at follow-up. Estimates were compared with observed proportions. Method 1 used progression rates observed during the two-year phase III clinical trial and the percentage of time that patients were on DMDT during the follow-up period. Method 2 used progression rates from a natural history comparison group of relapsing-remitting MS patients. At the eight-year follow-up, 42.0% of the original placebo patients and 29.1% of the original IFNbeta-1a patients reached an EDSS > or = 6.0, an observed treatment effect of approximately 30%. Using method 1, it was estimated that 36.3% of the original placebo patients and 27.6% of the original IFNbeta-1a patients should have reached an EDSS > or = 6.0. Use of the natural history control group (method 2) predicted less plausible outcomes. Estimated proportions of patients reaching the endpoint were 63.3% for the original placebo group and 55.8% for the original IFNbeta-1a group. Treatment effect sizes of 75-90% would be required to match estimates from method 2 with the observed outcome. The paucity of data on the long-term treatment of patients with MS may be aided by applying these or similar methods to vigorously followed cohorts of patients.